NOAA predicts wet, cold Pacific Northwest winter

If last winter didn’t include enough snow and cold temperatures for you, this winter might. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its annual Winter Outlook last week with predictions of a colder and wetter than average winter in the Pacific Northwest.

This winter, weather across the nation will be dominated by a moderate to strong La Niña. According to Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, “La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months.”

La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, while El Niño is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures, according to the Outlook.

Last winter was dominated by El Niño.

A wetter and colder winter was also predicted by climate experts at the 14th Annual Washington/Oregon Climate and Water Meeting according to The Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife News Bulletin.

The quick transition from El Niño to La Niña often means a wet, stormy winter is looming.

Nathan Mantua of the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts mentioned in the bulletin that this is a very strong La Niña event, the strongest since the 1950’s. The last time atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar was in 1954.

Since 1900, there have only been 14 years with an abrupt transition between El Niño and La Niña. Of those 14 years, 12 have produced streamflows at The Dalles on the Columbia River at 108 percent of average or higher. The wetter weather means higher than average streamflow in the spring.

According to Mantua, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the predominant source of inter-decadal climate variability in the Pacific Northwest, has also slipped into a cool phase, which supports La Niña.

La Niña typically brings moist jet streams to the Pacific Northwest, either directly from the west or by looping up through Alaska and down, according to Mantua. Jet streams looping through Alaska can bring very cold weather.

With predictions for a wetter, cooler winter, now is a good time to prepare for winter. Local businesses already have winter items in stock and are prepared for the snowy winter.

“Do a little preparation,” said Margaret Wachsman at Quality Farm & Garden. “You don’t have to be stressed out.”

Wachsman recommends checking your pipes for insulation, checking your chimney, and picking up hoses and extension cords in the yard so they don’t become a hazard with the snowblower. Quality Farm & Garden has already stocked the store with ice melt, snow shovels, sand tubes and rock salt.

Liesl Woomert at ProX Home Center mentioned people are already buying antifreeze, ice melt and tube sand, along with a few shovels, weather stripping and foam sealant.

“We have more on stock than last year,” said Woomert. “We might see a run on shovels but we have quite a few shovels on hand.”

Woomert recommends wrapping pipes in pipe-wrap, using small bundles of insulation to wrap pipes or insulate small areas, weather-sealing doors, and having kerosene lamps, oil lamps or candles in case of a power outage. Don’t forget the matches.

Another area of preparation is what is in your vehicle. Woomert mentioned a few good things to have in your car are an ice scraper, flashlight, extra batteries, jumper cables, blanket and flares.

For preparing your vehicle for the cold weather, Adrian Wages at Les Schwab recommended putting on snow tires, checking the air pressure in your tires, checking the condition of chains and windshield wipers, and checking antifreeze and oil levels. Also make sure you have an ice scraper and shovel.

Les Schwab has seen a slightly earlier snow rush than last year, even though there hasn’t been snow in the valley. Wages mentioned that people began changing over to snow tires in October and will continue until the end of December.

The first serious snow fall usually creates a rush for all winter items and services. Chris Matyi at Columbia Tractor says that is when people start buying snowblowers.

“We have more on hand this year...its going to snow,” said Matyi. “Supplies are limited...we can’t get any more. We have around 40 of them.”

If you already have a snowblower, Matyi suggests giving it a tune-up. Columbia Tractor’s tune-ups include tuning the motor, changing the oil, and checking belts, clutches and bearings to make sure everything is ready for the first snowfall.

A little preparation can make a snowy, cold winter more enjoyable.