Q&A about North Zone fire danger

Questions are coming up about the fire danger at this point in the year and where we might be headed given a warm and drier forecast predicted the next couple of weeks. Here is some insight into how things are shaping up.

Precipitation this spring/summer

90 Day precipitation anomalies for the period April 25 to July 23: The North Zone is showing generally 50-75 percent of normal with the south end of the zone showing 25-50 percent.

30 Day precipitation anomalies for the period June 24 to July 23. The North Zone is 25-50 percent of normal precipitation for the time period.

Drought Monitor showing the North Zone in an abnormally dry area. The Seasonal Drought Outlook identifies the North Zone being characterized as “Drought Development Likely” (map not shown).

Where are we now?

n The North Valleys and North Mountains have been listed as High Fire danger.

n Looking at July 23, indices the Ignition Component spiked due to RH’s in the mid-teens. With RH’s in the mid 20’s, the Ignition Component doesn’t spike as much and actually moderates a bit. So the 23rd may have been a bit of an outlier but shows what warm and low RH days may do to the Ignition Component.

Given this:

n The North Valleys are solidly in Very High. The 23rd they crept into the low end of Extreme ... but that could be due to the lower RH’s causing the Ignition Component to spike. The next several days RH’s are forecasted to be in the 20s which would still put the North Valleys in Very High.

n The North Mountains are on the High/Very High breakpoint. Given a few more days of warm and dry conditions the North Mountains will likely creep into Very High and stay there for a while given the predicted weather forecast.