Analysis projects April peak for Idaho COVID-19 deaths

New projections released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations predicts that Idaho will reach its peak for daily COVID-19 deaths in late April.

An independent health population research center at the University of Washington Medicine, IMHE said its model shows Idaho will reach a high of 12 COVID-19 deaths per day on April 26.

It projects 397 COVID-19 deaths in the state by Aug. 4.

The model shows Idaho will reach a hospital-resource-use peak on April 26, when 1,343 hospital beds are predicted to be needed, including 176 intensive care unit beds.

IMHE says Idaho has 1,817 hospital beds available and 151 ICU beds available, resulting in a shortage of 25 ICU beds.

IHME’s models are based on observed death rates, and so are not influenced by differences in testing. This means that changes in death rates would alter the model, but changes in the number of observed cases, or in how states are testing, would not.

The models are updated daily. Projections could change as more data becomes available.

Nationally, IHME forecasts 83,967 deaths by Aug. 4, reaching a peak of 2,214 deaths on April 15.

At the national peak, IHME’s model shows the U.S. will have a hospital bed shortage of 54,046 beds, including a shortage of 13,856 ICU beds.

“In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the U.S. will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care,” IHME Director Christopher J.L. Murray said. “These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.”

IHME said the projections also are based on the assumption of continued strong social distancing and other protective measures. The model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.

One week ago, Idaho Governor Brad Little issued a 21-day, statewide stay-at-home order.

As of March 31, Idaho is reporting 526 confirmed cases of COVID-19 — including 1 in Bonner County and 31 in Kootenai County — and nine deaths.